Iggy's Weather Blog

The Icy Winter Of 1972-73

2011-02-20T16:48:00.000-08:00

While I was recently having lunch with my family at one of our favorite restaurants, a song played over the radio station in the restaurant which brought me back a lot of weather memories. The song was Carly Simon's You're So Vain. It is one of my favorite songs and was a hit during the early months of 1973. I was in kindergarten at that time and I remember hearing it all over the radio. The reason the song brings me back a lot of weather memories is because that winter of 1972-73 turned out to be the least snowiest winter on record at Central Park with a total of only 2.8 inches of snow. Although not much snow fell, it was not an easy winter by no means.

That winter featured several storm systems in our region that turned out to be ice storms. The precipitation would start out as light snow, but then quickly change over to a dangerous mixture of sleet and freezing rain. This happened because a layer of above freezing temperatures moved into our area aloft while temperatures at the surface remained at or below freezing. As the icy mix hit the cold ground, it caused dangerous walking and driving conditions. I remember my mom and I walking very slowly and carefully back and forth from school during those events that winter. As the storms came to an end, the cold temperatures remained and so did the ice. This made it a difficult winter for our area, even though not much snow fell. That winter taught us that at least snow can be shoveled and plowed, while ice is very difficult to remove.

Meteorologist Iggy Camporeale

The Cold And Snowy Winter Of 2010-11 So Far

2011-01-17T16:54:00.000-08:00

A few months ago, I posted my prediction for the winter of 2010-11. I predicted that we would not have the same winter we did last year. I thought that when all was said and done, we would end up with near normal temperatures and slightly below normal precipitation. My outlook was for a lot of quick changes from cold temperatures to mild temperatures. I also felt that we would not see the severity of snowstorms that we experienced last winter. Well, so much for that prediction. Instead, it looks as though Mother Nature has sent this meteorologist a slice of humble pie. We have experienced well below normal temperatures so far, and we have already exceeded the normal amount of snowfall for the entire season. The December 26-27 Blizzard alone went down as one of top five biggest snowstorms on record at New York City's Central Park. Why has it been so cold and snowy so far, and what lies ahead for the rest of the winter?

Prior to December, we went through a stretch of nine consecutive months from March thru November of above normal temperatures. The reason for the abnormal warmth was a strong ridge of high pressure both at the surface and upper levels of the atmosphere that covered the eastern two-thirds of the United States. This ridge pushed the jet stream north into Canada, thus preventing cold air from the north from invading the Nation. As we progressed through November, this ridge started to break down. It started first in the Rockies and West Coast and then progressed east across the rest of the country as we went into December. The ridge has been replaced instead by a deep trof, or dip in the jet stream. This has allowed the cold air that was locked up in Canada and the Arctic to pour down into most of the United States, including our area. Since the trof has dipped down into the deep South, it has brought up moisture from the Gulf Coast along with energy an several occasions. This has led to two major snowstorms so far in our region and New England.

So, the sixty four thousand dollar question is, what lies ahead for the rest of the winter? Once these patterns set up, they sometimes last for a long time, as the ridge did for most of 2010. It appears to me that the trof is somewhat locked in place over the U.S. It may change position at some point and move further west. If this occurs, we will go through a period of much milder temperatures. This happened in our region back in February 1984. After a very cold and stormy December and January, we had two weeks of much warmer temperatures during February. I would not be surprised if the same thing happens this year. However, until the trof breaks down or moves further west, I am afraid we will continue to see outbreaks of cold and more chances for snow in our region. Long range weather prediction has many perils to it, just like Mother Nature has a lot of humble pie for all of us meteorologists.

Meteorologist Iggy Camporeale

The Election Day Storm Of November 8, 1977

2010-10-31T16:53:00.000-07:00

Each year when Election Day comes around in early November, I remember back to a powerful coastal storm that pounded our Tri-State region back on Election Day in 1977. The storm produced rainfall records across our region that still stand to this day and probably will for many years to come. The storm had two rounds to it. The first round of heavy rain combined with strong east to northeast winds swept through our region during the day on Monday November 7. The rain was heavy enough to produce urban and poor drainage flooding. Driving and walking became difficult as the rain and wind caused a lot of leaves to fall off the trees. The fall foliage was at peak levels throughout the area, so it was no surprise to see them fall in the quantity they did. The rain and wind abated as we went into the evening hours. We went into a lull during the night, but the worst of the storm was yet to come.
As we awoke on Election morning Tuesday November 8, voting was not the only story that dominated the news. It was clear that we were going to be in for a potentially dangerous weather day. The wind and rain we had endured the day before was about to return. The intensity of the rain quickly increased before schools opened. By late morning the rain had become torrential with rates of 1 inch per hour. By the time the rain finally began to taper off late in the afternoon, a record 7.40 inches had fallen for the date at Central Park New York. Not only was it a new record for November 8, but it still stands as the most rain ever for any day in November at the park since records began there in 1869. In addition to that record at the park, the storm also set a 24 hour record rainfall for November 7-8 of 8.09 inches.
These record rains led to damaging floods across the entire region. The urban areas experienced significant street, highway and basement flooding. Some roads were totally impassable. Over inland areas, the torrential rains led to stream and river flooding across the Tri-State region. It took days before the flood waters receded in some areas and a lot of damage was left behind. It is not unusual for the East Coast to get heavy rains during November, but this storm was one for the record books in our area. It is one that I will never forget. I am predicting we will see some rain and wind events this November, but I do not think we will have a repeat of 1977. As I always say however, we'll see what Mother Nature has in store for us.

Meteorologist Iggy Camporeale

The 2010-11 Winter Outlook

2010-10-03T14:55:00.000-07:00

Now that we have reached October and the weather pattern has finally changed from summer to one that looks and feels more like autumn, it is time for this meteorologist to share my thoughts about the upcoming winter of 2010-11 in our area. This upcoming winter will be different from last winter. In looking at the long range trends and jet stream patterns, I feel that this upcoming winter will feature near normal temperatures and slightly below normal precipitation in the New York Metropolitan Area. This means that our region and the East Coast will not see the severity and frequency of winter storms we experienced last winter. This does not mean we won't see cold weather outbreaks and winter storms. We will still see outbreaks of Arctic air from time to time as well as chances at snow and other wintry precipitation. The difference is that they won't be as frequent and prolonged as last winter. The jet stream pattern favors quick changes, so the cold outbreaks we receive will not stay in place very long but instead will be quickly followed by milder temperaturs. This pattern is also not favorable for the frequent and significant snowstorms we experienced last winter. We will probably see events that begin as snow, but then change over to rain or a wintry mix.

The reasons behind my prediction is that it appears that the northern branch of the jet stream will be strong, however the southern branch will not be as strong as last winter. This means that the United States will not see as many storms come ashore along southern California from the Pacific Ocean as we did last winter. A good number of these ended up becoming snowstorms along the East Coast when they bumped into the cold air in place. This is the way it looks to this meteorologist at this point in time. I will continue to monitor the long range patterns and provide any updates. As I always say, Mother Nature will have the final say.

Meteorologist Iggy Camporeale

The 1971 Storm Named Doria

2010-08-29T08:03:00.000-07:00

The Tropics have become increasingly active over the past week and bear watching to see if any of the systems pose a threat to the East Coast later this week and into the upcoming Labor Day weekend. Back in 1971, Tropical Storm Doria had a significant and damaging impact on the Tri-State Region. It was the 5th tropical storm of the 1971 season. On August 15th, it began as a tropical wave off the coast of Africa. It tracked westward for several days while slowly organizing itself. By August 23rd, the storm had become a tropical depression as it passed through the northern Lesser Antilles. It continued moving north of Puerto Rico, Hispaniola and The Bahamas. At this time, it began to show further signs of organization. The storm finally reached tropical storm status early on August 27th about 230 miles east of Daytona Beach, Florida and was given the name Doria. It reached it's peak of 65 mph winds during the day on the 27th as it made landfall near Morehead City, North Carolina. From there, the storm had eyes for our region as it quickly raced up the eastern seaboard toward our area. During the evening of the 27th into the morning hours of the 28th, Doria paralleled the eastern portion of New Jersey bringing torrential rains and strong gusty winds over 40 mph.

The storm dumped record amounts of rain throughout the Tri-State Region. Newark, New Jersey had a record 7.84 inches in a 24 hour period from the 27th-28th. Central Park, New York had a record 5.78 inches in the same 24 hour period. The winner for the most rainfall went to Little Falls, New Jersey with a whopping 10.29 inches. These record rains led to record-breaking river levels and widespread damaging floods throughout New Jersey. Streets and subways were flooded throughout New York City. The storm caused over 138 million dollars worth of damage in New Jersey alone in 1971 dollar values and 3 deaths. The storm capped off an active summer. The summer of 1971 went down in the top ten wettest summers at Central Park with a total of 18.88 inches of rainfall. Although the summer of 2010 overall has had below normal rainfall in our region, as Doria showed us in 1971, we can make it up in a hurry.

Meteorologist Iggy Camporeale

A July To Remember

2010-08-01T17:01:00.000-07:00

July 2010 went down in the Central Park record books as the second warmest July on record as well as the second warmest month on record. According to official statistics maintained by the National Weather Service's Upton New York Office, the average temperature for the month was 81.3 degrees. This was an astounding 4.8 degrees above the normal monthly temperature of 76.5 degrees. The warmest July on record and the warmest month occurred eleven years ago in 1999 when we averaged 81.4 degrees. The records at Central Park date back to 1869.

If it is any consolation, we were not the only ones suffering through the brutal heat and humidity this past month. Most of the United States had prolonged periods of oppressive heat and humidity. The high pressure ridge that caused the heat pretty much covered most of country, including the Northeast. This ridge continues to block any significant cooler air from invading the country from Canada. Thankfully, over the last week of July, we have experienced a break from the worst of the heat as the ridge has shifted further to the south and west of our region, allowing for some cooler air to drop down from eastern Canada. People have been asking me what will August bring?

In looking at the long range trends, I still see some more bouts of heat and humidity through a good part of the country, including our area. However, I do not think we will see the severity of heat we experienced in July. As we progress through August, the days will continue to get shorter and the nights longer. We will experience some breaks from time to time. Also, there are indications that the Tropics are about to get active as we approach what is traditionally the most active part of the hurricane season from mid August through late September. Any weakness in the ridge along the East Coast can make us vulnerable to a direct strike from a hurricane or tropical storm. This will be something I will be watching closely during the remainder of this hurricane season. This is how I see it, but as I always say, we'll see what Mother Nature has in store for us.

Meteorologist Iggy Camporeale

What A Difference A Year Makes

2010-07-05T13:33:00.000-07:00

What a difference between the Summer of 2009 and the 2010 Summer thus far. Last summer in the Tri-State region as well as the entire Northeast was cool and wet. We had very few days that were ideal for going to the beach. This summer so far has been the direct opposite. June 2010 went down as the 4th warmest on record at Central Park according to climate statistics maintained by the National Weather Service. The average monthly temperature of 74.7 degrees was a whopping 3.5 degrees above normal. June 2009 on the other hand tied for the 8th coolest on record with an average monthly temperature of 67.5 degrees. As I composed this entry, a heat wave was in progress across the entire East Coast including our region. This heat wave began on July 4 at Central Park and shows signs that it may last for several days. Why such a dramatic difference from last summer?

Last summer, we had a trough of low pressure in place in the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere across the Great Lakes and Northeast. It was a pool of cool and moist air that led to unsettled and cool conditions at the surface. The threat for showers and thunderstorms was more of the rule than the exception. This pattern just did not break down.

This summer so far has an extensive ridge of high pressure both at the surface and in the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere. This ridge has been in place over the southern two-thirds of the United States and has nosed into the Northeast. This ridge contains hot temperatures at the surface and warm temperatures aloft. Thankfully, at some point the ridge will break down and allow for cooler temperatures and rainfall to replace the heat in our region. However, I feel that we will see several bouts of heat during July and August. This ridge is strong and will affect us often this summer, just like the trough affected us last summer. That is this meteorologist's view for the rest of the summer, but as always we'll see what Mother Nature decides.

Meteorologist Iggy Camporeale

The 2010 Hurricane Season

2010-05-31T14:28:00.000-07:00

The 2010 hurricane season begins on June 1 and runs thru November 30. Favorable conditions in the atmosphere as well as warmer than normal sea surface temperatures in the southern Atlantic are setting the stage for an active season. The peak in activity usually occurs in August and September, however there have been notable early season storms. Hurricane Agnes caused devastating floods along the Susquehanna River region of eastern Pennsylvania in June 1972. As the storm approached the mid Atlantic, it made a left hand turn into eastern Pennsylvania and actually stalled over the region for a few days, dropping torrential rains. Some locations along it's path received between 10-15 inches. The jet stream at the time caused the storm to take such a path. Anytime we have a trough of low pressure in the upper atmosphere along the East Coast as we did in June 1972, we need to keep a close eye on any storms over the southern Atlantic and Gulf Coast. The eastern side of a trough has winds that usually blow from the south at upper levels of the atmosphere, thus bringing activity our way from the south. It remains to be seen whether any storms will make landfall this season, however we should prepare ourselves now in case we face such a scenario later on. As a meteorologist, I will keep my eye on the Tropics throughout this season especially when a trough approaches the East Coast.